15 Nov Is this just a giant climate “marshmallow experiment”?

The short read:

Leaders from countries across the globe have gathered at COP26 to put plans in play to move the temperature needle lower. It requires negotiation that leads to consensus. It requires behaviour modification. Is that possible?

I fully understand the economic pressures on countries ranging from those capable of holding their breath underwater (fully-developed) to those treading water (still developing). All the adults in the room know the right thing to do. But when it comes to negotiation, many treat it as a zero-sum game. But we know that is not so.

“Nobody wins unless everybody wins”
– Bruce Springsteen

As we negotiate, can we offer sufficient maturity to practice delayed gratification for our nations, financially assist the developing nations so they have a chance at survival, and create the conditions necessary for the earth and all her species to recover?

And then do we have populations in each country willing to demand that we convert those commitments into fast and furious action? Because in the end, that is will matter the most.

The longer read:

Is this just one big climate “marshmallow experiment”?

Welcome to the next installment in our Climate Conversations between Maya and Karena.

Photo by Joyful on Unsplash

Maya: Oh! That looks like a nice cup of hot cocoa, Karena. Why the stack of marshmallows?

Karena: Please, join me, Maya.

I was playing with these marshmallows and thinking of the parallels between that 1960s Marshmallow experiment and how our politicians and negotiators are approaching these whole climate conversations. They are nitpicking over words, while whole ecosystems are on the brink of collapse.

Maya: I’ve started paying closer attention to the climate conversation since our last discussion “We borrow this earth from our children.” Particularly with the world leaders gathered in Glasgow for COP26 – the UN Conventions on Climate Change.  The time for talk is done. We have been “talking” about this for 26 years! Greta (Thunberg) was right when she chastised our leadership as adults.

Karena: I expect to live another 40 years. These kids will live another 80. A child born today will still be alive in the early 2100s. I do not want to look back in another 26 years in 2047, bewildered by what could have been possible “if only” we had taken significant action today. What will 2050 – 2100 look like given the many “extreme weather” events across the globe just in the last year: devastating wildfires in Australia and the Pacific Northwest; flooding in Germany, China and Fiji; Hurricane Ida, the heat dome in the Pacific Northwest – the list goes on. Imagine if we had honoured some of our agreements at the Rio Summit in 1992, or the Kyoto protocol in 1997?

Maya: It’s definitely sobering to think about what I want the world to look like as I age. Or, put a different way, what will the climate look like in 2047 when my kid is about my age? What quality of life will it permit them to live? I imagine them having enough success so they can buy themselves beautiful things, like a home on a beach. But what is the point of that house if there is no longer a beach?

I remember the Marshmallow Experiment from psychology class. You could have one marshmallow now. But if you can wait, you would be rewarded with double the treat: two marshmallows! Those videos were hilarious! But what does it have to do with climate?

Karena: The videos are hilarious! You should see the things the kids do to resist the temptation! Some will squash it, some will lick it, others pace the room. They clearly start with great intentions of waiting for the great reward of a double serving. They have done their math, and even to a pre-schooler “two is more than one”. 

The study coined the term “delayed gratification“.  And that is where my interpretation of Climate negotiations intersect with this work. Researchers continued to follow this same group of children at intervals over the next 40 years of their lives. And they found a strong correlation between the children with stronger willpower and their academic, career and life success.

The phrase that stuck with me from one of the videos was the ability “to take future consequences into account“. It appears that is what we need as a mature society right now.

So what does that have to do with climate?

Karena: For the sake of Mother Earth, humanity and the species with which we share this planet, more of us adult humans need to practice the discipline of delayed gratification. But this is at odds with our current economic model:

“I want it all, I want it all, I want it all.
And I want it now“
– Queen (Lyrics to “I want it all”)

We are overfishing the oceans, overgrazing the land. The rapidly melting polar ice caps are drowning out island nations and eroding our favourite beaches. Each industry and each nation is out for self-protection, demanding exemptions for their own citizens and economies. We have fallen for the immediate gratification of Amazon Prime.  At every stage, we create waste. I am wondering how we can convince a larger global population to exert a little delayed gratification now, in the hope that it will help heal our planet so that we can continue to share this wondrous gift with future generations.

Maya: Something you said last time has stuck with me, Karena:

“What “better” world are we trying to create for our children that we are willing to give away what is already beautiful and free?”

I am getting very concerned. Each nation sent negotiators to COP26. They burnt the midnight oil, hammering out agreements. But those are the words and the intentions.

It is urgent that we maintain the tension between those commitments and real action. The Paris Agreement (COP21) was held in 2015 – six years ago! What does it take to get movement on these issues? With every corner of the earth experiencing unusual weather in 2021, it seems to me that this is the most urgent COP meeting to date. If we cannot create synergy in the face of the “Code Red for Humanity” report from the UN IPCC, when will we?

Karena: I know. It can get overwhelming. I, too, am afraid of being disappointed. It seems like these events are great photo ops for the politicians. They get their talking points and off they fly.

But all the negotiation at COP26 means nothing if nations cannot convert this conversation into action at home. I agree with you, Maya. I hate to use such a cliche, but this truly is a pivotal moment in human history. Synergy to create agreement is an important part of the puzzle. We might live in different countries, but we all share the air we breathe. It does not respect borders.

I have been wondering. What stops these exuberant agreements from turning into action when everyone gets back to their own home country? Just look at the horse-trading that is going on in the US Congress at present for the Infrastructure and Build Back Better bills.

The politicians and negotiators are the little kids who cannot wait to get their hands on the single marshmallow.  They leave the room waving it triumphantly at having one-upped someone else. But are they cheating their own voters out of the bigger opportunities that might come with delayed gratification? Instead of watching out for the long-term interests of their base, are they pandering to short-term gratification?

But it is also on us. In the end, it is action – projects at the local level, pressure on local elected officials, choices that we make – that will signal to the government that the times have changed and the citizens demand a nation that can be handed down to the next three generations.

Maya: I think everyone is afraid of losing the life they already have. They view the discussion in terms of trade-offs. But we are talking about short-term transitions and almost immediate benefits. All for long-term “possibilities”. Existence vs Extinction. We need to see this as a conversation about choices.  Ours. Our kids.  When do we realize that we need to “take future consequences into account” and make choices with a longer time horizon?

Let’s talk hope

Karena: First, though, I truly believe we need to focus on “Rational hope” That is what climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe calls it.  Without that, humanity today cannot pull together and create the inspiration and ideas to think – and do – our way out of this. And that is what we need. 

Beyond ourselves, we need to communicate that belief, conviction and possibility to a young generation that is still coming of age. “The best idea can come from anyone, anywhere, at any time.”  GenZ is very clear on what is at stake. We need to hold out that vision of a world populated with humans, with green grass, sufficient clean water and clear air, and healthy sustainable ecosystems.

I believe in this idea so strongly, I had put it out in a LinkedIn post:

“Hope makes vision possible. Vision is what makes discussion possible.
We only lose if we give up hope.”

To which my friend David W Reynolds responded:

I like this line – “Vision is what makes discussion possible.”
Your words served as a catalyst for some additional/extended thoughts.
“Discussion empowers action.
Action creates change.
Change validates hope.
Hope generates vision.
Vision starts discussion.
Discussion…”
and so on. A great cycle!

Maya:  You are right. That tipping point could go both ways. Right now I am noticing more positive initiatives. Not enough to take our foot off the gas (I have to search for a more climate-friendly metaphor!) but enough to show that a greater segment of the world’s population is paying attention to the climate.

I am encouraged by some initiatives being discussed particularly on the finance front. GFANZ encourages the money in our existing companies and systems to flow towards a more sustainable world. $130 trillion dollars in private capital and 450 firms from 45 countries are signed on. They always say follow the money – and now the money seems to be following and flowing green. 

Karena: “Have your green go green!” That would be a good buzz phrase! 

Long View

Karena: Ultimately, like the marshmallow test, I want to do what I can where I can. The biggest impact will be made by governments. Enough of us need to put pressure on our governments to ensure that future generations of our citizens enjoy some of the natural resources – clean air and water – that we had the opportunity to enjoy and appreciate as we grew.

I’m taking the long view and keeping my eye on the future. I picture my future self, 26 years from now. 

I want to be lying on the beach in Goa just as my grandmother used to do,

The weather is just warm enough. The waves are gently lapping the shoreline. The rustic picnic food is delicious. We have enough to drink in the shade of a coconut grove.

I see myself enjoying a ski vacation with my children and any future grandchildren. There is that nip of cold in the air. We are grateful for the abundance of food. We are sitting by the open fire in a ski chalet. It has been a great day skiing on the slopes and exploring the glaciers that are still holding. We explain to our grandchildren how the glaciers were almost lost, and how the world rallied around to give them the special experience they had this day. I am savouring a giant mug of hot chocolate. And watching my giggling grandchildren, their faces covered with goo as they roast an unlimited supply of marshmallows.

#MakeTakeTalk

Where do you see yourself in 2047? How old are you? Who is by your side? How are you dressed? What are you eating? What colour is the sunrise? What vision are you holding on to?

And what are you doing today to ensure that will be possible?

But tick tock, the clock continues to tick while we make plans. And the ice is already melting.

CREDIT & THANKS; DEFINITIONS & RESOURCES:

• My book “Contours of Courageous Parenting – Tilting Towards Better Decisions” is available on your local Amazon site
• Find a version of this thought for today article on LinkedIn, Instagram
• Photo, audio & video credits: Karena de Souza
  • Photo by Serafima Lazarenko on Unsplash
  • Photo by Joyful on Unsplash

Video of the Marshmallow Test experiment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment